The prestigious reviewer "Isonomía" sparked a storm in the holy week with a media leaked survey that triggered the markets: President Mauricio Macri lost today a vote against Christina Kirchner by nearly 10 points, according to the survey, which could have been for the Wall Street investment fund.
Since then, the dollar has advanced by 10% and the risk to the country has reached more than 1,000 points. With all the confirmation that the government of Cambimos will not be a V-plan by the popular governor of Buenos Aires Maria Eugenia Vidal as an alternative candidate – the dollar went up steeply, and bonds and stocks were looking for new apartments.
Investors estimate that the risk of default, in the case the former president returns to power, is very high. And you know: financial capital is not "brave" and run away from risk.
Now, a new poll by the author, who predicts the best result in the 2017 Buenos Aires elections, estimates less values for the government on the possibility of voting: the former president will pass my acquaintance on just one point, similar to the result of Isonomía, Of undecided: technical tie. Macri is still far from being considered defeated by Christina Kirchner.
And it is very difficult to "project" those who are deliberating, that is, to distribute them proportionately. The norm suggests that the most likely hypothesis, and the "conspiracy" of 39% for Kirchner compared to 38% for the sellers will give almost 50/50. It is more likely that certain "anger" against the poor economic performance of the government of Cambimos and the loss of credibility of President Macri leads to many potential voters of Macri in the second round against Kirchner to deny the vote in favor of the ruling party.
The recent focus groups of the Ecuadorian guru, Jamie Duran Braba, would note that the dissatisfaction of many of Kambimos' former protagonists would be such that Ristina could win if the economy did not slow her down in time. Even in the survey of Isonomía, these nine points in favor of Kirchner sounds irremovable abyss to re-select Macri, unless inflation falls flat and the economy begins to grow, which at this point does not sound very likely. It appears that isonia confirms the results of Ecuador's secret focus groups, which led the government to launch a palliative plan for essential prices and to stop raising interest rates until elections. Perhaps because of this panic broke out in the markets.
But the survey of Opinaia, a survey established by Valentín Nabel and characterized by online surveys, along with the good news about the chances of a whole of accidental second round, brings bad news from the first round of the president. Analysts are focusing more on their gambling to almost cards. However, the first round is not only the key to getting to know the two contenders that will be measured "run away", but to spread the seats of deputies and senators in Congress: The first round largely determines the next government will be. And today Cambiemos will be getting close to 25%, compared with 31% of Unidad Ciudadana, the new party of the former president.
Among the various Peronist options, the best position will be former Minister Roberto to the Court, with 11%, followed by liberal Jose Luis Espart and leftist Nicholas Del Cano, with 4% intention to vote.
Again, here is the question of how the undecided in the first round: almost 30%. If it was proportionate, Macri would approach to 32%, pretty close to almost 35% he got in the first 2015, although he probably could not avoid losing a little dividing seats.
But what will happen if the aggrieved people are not distributed proportionately? Many angry at Mackere – who will vote only as a small player in the second round – will be able to take advantage of the vote in the first round to raise the third most competitive option, which, according to Opinaia's survey, comes from non-K . More than 40% of voters do not want to know anything with Macri or the former president. They are looking for an option out of the "crack".
Given this reasonable hypothesis, the loss of the banks for Cambimus seems much more feasible. These figures are not minor, because Macri will require all possible power in Congress to deal with structural economic reforms (of the country, the work, the provisional tax) needed to cure Argentina of inflation and the chronic stagnation.
His "honeymoon" was long – and used – in the first term. But he will face his second term with a positive personal image today, according to its characteristics, by only 34%. While with the election victory it would improve a lot, it hardly has the patience that any new leader or re-elected with a big impulse. Macri started his first term with almost 70% positive picture: he lost exactly half.
Jamie Duran Barba himself attended the last cabinet meeting, after the "tragic Easter encuestológica", to calm the winds and ensure that Macri will win the second round of 52-48 percent.
It's half a year until October. A lot of things will happen.
The author is the editor of the magazine "Imagen" and conductor "La Hora de Makquiavelo".