While the dollar ignites the fears of the traumatic country, the government is betting on its narrow future on the IMF and allows a little more space to use the tools that soothe it. The Minister Nicholas Dooz and her son And the president of the central bank, Guido Sandleris, They negotiate hour by hour with the organism managers and cost options that allow for better control over the exchange rate so stable these days.
It is not easy negotiations. God IMF leadership She refused to change an agreement with Argentina that had a significant change last year when the initial loan of 27 billion dollars was extended to more than $ 50 million relief on central bank reserves last September, and the winds of possible default began to darken the financial scenario. But the time is pressing the government's Mauricio Macri. The dollar ended on Friday under $ 47, and every cent that rises is another impulse that comes to inflation. Economic advisers calculate that the cost of living for April is about a 4% cornice (see more "for the dollar ….", page 10) and it can be aggravated if the dollar continues to rise to the top band ($ 51), 45).
This number of the dollar is approaching, but it is also far enough to put presidential re-election at risk. The future of Kerry's candidacy, fiercely protected by the president's closest circle, would be very damaging if inflation failed to lead once and for all to a downward curve. Because of this they need more fire power to stop the dollar rising.
God dishes The financial statements discussed in the daily exchanges between Dujovne, Sandleris and the IMF are diverse. But there are two of them, very simple, that are on top of the first menu. Reduce the issue track Run on the dollar before it passes over $ 50 or Expand the limit of 60 million dollars per day That the agreement with the fund allows the central bank today. The first is most opposed and the other is under evaluation by the bureaucracy of the organism, because in the current relationship with Argentina, lead Alejandro Werner, The manager of the Western Hemisphere, and David Lipton, Deputy CEO and virtual director of number two director Christine Lagarde.
There is another possibility that seeks clues in negotiations. It's in the end Purchase of Argentine bonds, Those with the fall of the last few days raised the risk of the state until it makes it to cross the 1,000 points last Thursday. The government used the rapist during that dramatic lunch to knock it down and keep it at 967 points but the limitations of a sustainable liability fund mean that the firepower is also limited with this tool. There are some economists who consulted with them Clarin They point to the latest financial crises in the world, in order to learn how to act. After the Lehman earthquake in 2008, the US Treasury and European Treasury went out to buy falling bonds to ease the economic effects of bankruptcy.
One of the cases pointed to the economic, social and economic failure of Greece, which had to go as Argentina loans IMF to overcome it. The European Central Bank's break-in to buy down-priced bonds was also the key to returning to the early years of a crisis that put the European community on the brink of a breakthrough: The US Treasury intervened buying bonds Or affect other friendly funds to buy them and ease the situation of our economy at risk?
Some in the government believe that this hypothesis is possible, but Argentina should negotiate it at a higher political level. This is not a problem that IMF managers can solve. On the other hand, going to Lagarde, with a good relationship with Macri and Dujovne, could be an alternative to expanding the room for maneuver that the government needs urgently. And there is always the extreme resource of exploring the link with Donald Trump Which was the key to speed up the IMF loan to Argentina.