What are black swans?
By black swan it is understood that these are those unforeseen events that are beyond what is usually expected of a situation and have serious consequences.
It is a theory used in the economic field and is used as a metaphor to address this type of events that change the socio-economic trajectory, although some time later they try to rationalize.
For example, the “Brexit” was once considered a black swan. In other words, an unexpected and influential event with many consequences. The epidemic of Corona virus There was another.
Based on a report by Saxo Bank published at the end of 2020 and some updated opinions circulating today on investors’ tables, we analyze what the possible black swans for this year are:
1 – that the vaccine will not arrive
Dozens of countries are already storing their populations against Covid-19 In what represents the best hope against the plague. Not just for health reasons; It is also expected that there will be no new closures of the economies given that Europe is going through a new wave of infections, while the virus is advancing even if there is a lot of control in the US and Latin America.
If the multiple vaccines produced do not achieve sufficient immunity to maintain as normal economies as possible, the economic impact will be significant.
2 – Joe Biden’s death
In the midst of an unprecedented political crisis because of the opposition of Donald Trump After leaving power, the elected Joe Biden takes over the presidency of the United States with an economy seeking to return to full power.
Biden has already unveiled its stimulus program with a $ 1.5 trillion financial lifeline that markets have been very much looking forward to.
What could happen if the world economy collapses? Biden’s hypothetical death, though nothing indicates it will happen.
3 – China closes trade with US
The relationship between China and USA It has been deteriorating for a long time, with a trade war and coins producing tail blows around the world.
During his presidency, Trump exchanged an attraction with Chinese Xi Jinping with sanctions, high tariffs and mutual bans on trade in goods between the two powers.
If this continues, investors fear that China will close its trade with the United States, which will cause large technology and other consumer companies to suffer from shortage problems.
4 – Let the pad turn off the tap
Of all the options at hand, this will be the most dangerous since much of the recovery has taken place Wall Street In the last ten months it has come hand in hand with assistance from the organization Federal Service. A change in strategy will lead to the collapse of markets that are particularly dependent on central banks and lead investors to a refuge in buying dollars.
5 – Technology is collapsing
The world is looking anew at large technology companies, among them Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon, Whose resources are even greater than those of different countries.
In Europe, initiatives are emerging to limit their power and raise higher taxes. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s position on monopolies is well known, which could translate into new regulations.
6 – Emergence of money and effects on solar panels
A few weeks ago water was incorporated into the futures market on Wall Street, but from the Saxo Bank they anticipate that money could be the raw material that would serve as a safe haven asset.
If so, excessive price increases of this key element for the production of solar panels could hurt investment in solar energy, as one of its main components is this metal. There are already several investment banks that have identified this commodity as one of their favorite assets for 2021.
7 – War on oil prices
The differences between OPEC members are well known. Tired of discussing the cartel countries, they could choose to compete in the market and lower oil prices, which if it did would lead to the bankruptcy of private companies in the US and Russia.
The price of oil is closely linked to the development of the epidemic. If economies regain their momentum and demand for crude increases, a further increase in barrel value can be expected.
8 – Amazon “buys” Cyprus
Europe has aroused the interest of some large companies. TikTok announced a few months ago its intention to make large investments in the old continent. Among them, the establishment of a data center in Ireland or the constitution of its first company in Spain.
In this sense, the investment bank predicts that a real black swan will be made up of a copy of its European Amazon headquarters in Cyprus, where taxation is slightly more convenient, they note from the circle. This translates into the growing influence of the technology giant in the country’s internal government affairs, its eventual expulsion from the EU and its actual final “sale” to the Jeff Bezos Corporation.
Precisely on the subject of tax burdens, a certain remark was made in 2020 because of the differences between the member states of the European Union, and therefore the Commission’s response included a response to the technological giants and the importance of progress in harmonization. .
9 – Germany saves France
The economic crisis caused by the plague has brought about a great change in the markets. The EU response went hand in hand with rising debt levels in all countries.
In this sense, the study prepared by Saxo Bank analyzes that high debt ratios and corporate bankruptcies may lead France to seek a financial rescue from Germany through the central bank to save its large banks from a forced decision. Affected by a sharp jump in non-performing loans and loans rates that are not sustainable for the economy.
10 – Tesla Passa balancing bitcoins
As you have already suggested on Twitter, Alson Musk Decides to put in your company accounts Bitcoin. That is, a bubble will overlap (that of Tesla) With another (cryptocurrencies).
Tesla had a fantastic 2020 and the increase in its shares led to Musk becoming the richest man in the world.
His word is reference to investors. Proof of this is what happened in the midst of the controversy surrounding the change in its terms implemented by WhatsApp messaging service, which caused users to push towards other applications.
Musk recommended using Signal, another messaging service. This tweet made many investors rush to buy stocks. The problem is that this company is not traded on the stock exchange.
What happened? Investors They accidentally went out of their way to buy shares in Signal Advance Inc., an over-the-counter device maker.
The first rise in stocks began in full swing. Of the 60 cents worth a day before Musk’s tweet, they rose to $ 3.76, then doubled to $ 7.19 on Friday and then jumped 438%, bringing them to $ 38.70. .