This article was originally published on "Talk", an independent and non-profit source of news, analysis and commentary by academic experts. Discovery information is available on the original site.
Author: Normand Musau, Director de l'Institut de energie Trottier, Polytechnique Montreal et Professeur de physique, Université de Montréal
It seems as if the day does not pass without the release of further research showing human actions will inevitably increase the average temperature of the planet past the turning point that will lead to climate change escaping.
This increase occurs despite many climate policies promising governments around the world. Canada, as in most countries, has ambitious climatic targets: a reduction of 80 percent in greenhouse gas emissions (20) GHG.
A new study called "Canadian Energy Energy" – 2050, prepared by the Montreal Polytechnic and Paul E3 at the Montreal School of Business, argues that current mitigation efforts are not sufficient to meet these promises. However, the study also suggests the destinations are far from reach – partly thanks to the rapid decline in the price of turning our energy sector into low carbon emission technologies.
Goals will not be met
The study, based on technical and economic models prepared by ESMIA in Montreal, examined five scenarios for the energy system in Canada and in each district by 2050. His conclusion: Neither the federal government nor all the provinces except Nova Scotia should be put in place to allow them to meet their 2030 or 2050 Goals.
While Canada has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% compared with 2005, the study model suggests that even if existing federal and perinatal measures are available, current emissions will remain constant and will increase by 10% by 2050.
This means that the estimates of the federal government, which predicts Canada will still achieve a reduction of about 10 percent in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, are too optimistic.
One of the main findings of this study is a detailed analysis of a province by a province of four reduction scenarios that assess the energy trajectories to achieve: (1) provincial goals; (2) federal goals (a decrease of 30% compared with 2005 in 2030 and 80% in 2050); (3) international targets (80% compared with 1990 in 2050) and 4 federal targets with the purchase of 20% of California greenhouse gas emissions according to Canada's National Framework Convention on Climate Change at the end of 2017 .
The most significant findings of these models are that the most ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are both technically and economically.
Indeed, the marginal cost of the last tone worth of CO2 was canceled in 2050 to meet international targets estimated at about $ 1,000. While this cost may seem high compared to the price of carbon today (about $ 20 per ton under the federal program), it is similar to the cost of reducing emissions from programs managed by the Green Fund in Quebec.
More importantly, this amount is 30% lower than a similar estimate made just three years ago in a scenario of 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This estimate affected a marginal cost of $ 1,400 per ton of CO2 equivalent. The difference stems mainly from the speed of technological changes in the energy market and the decline in the prices of solar energy and batteries.
Analyzing the impact of these goals on the provinces also reveals unexpected trends. For example, although Saskatchewan now opposes carbon price, by 2050 the county will not have to pay more than the rest of Canada to meet national targets. Models show that Saskatchewan can even reduce its emissions by 90 percent by 2050, while Canada as a whole can reduce them by 80 percent.
Problems in Ontario
In contrast, it seems that Ontario is more difficult to reverse its energy system. Canada's marginal cost will reduce its emissions by only 70%, indicating the importance of supporting the development of new green technologies.
To optimize greenhouse gas reduction, each district needs to adopt unique solutions that reflect the resources and environment. It is also essential for all levels of government – from provincial to federal to provincial – to adopt a collaborative approach based on science and best practices.
This approach should enable the development of integrated strategies, both in energy production and in use.
If the climate goals of 2030 and 2050 are economically viable, as shown in this energy, the change that is needed is profound. And it will not work without the support of the real transition strategy – which unfortunately is still sorely lacking in all levels of government in Canada.
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