"China's economic situation is still difficult, the Chinese Communist Party held a Politburo meeting on Thursday and then held a major economic work conference focusing on coping strategies." People familiar with the matter said that this round of meetings would offer new steps to stimulate the economy and open up the market. Researchers expect that GDP growth next year may be as low as 6%, but the final situation depends on the consequences of the US commercial war.
Compared to last year, residents across the country felt that the Chinese economy was getting depressed. In the Northeast, many people still expect measures of the central government to revive the Northeast last year, thinking that the real estate market has bottomed out, but after one year has passed, the economic rebound is expected to be completely lost.
Mr. Lin, a resident of Shenyang, told Free Asia Radio that he felt the recession was coming. On the one hand, the residents are concerned about unemployment, and on the other hand they are unable to repay their loans: "I feel depressed, and the most important sign is that people who buy at the supermarket are not like before, people are less than 70 percent less than before. In the past there were ten tables and twenty tables in the hotel, now two or three tables, unless this is a very famous restaurant, the excellent hotel is now very rare, I think the Chinese economy has a big problem. "
Some people in Guangzhou said that the trade war of China and the US, along with the news about layoffs of companies, makes most people afraid to spend, and the number of vacant units in the mall has increased significantly.
Under this pessimistic mood, the Central Committee of China's Economic Labor Conference will be held in Beijing from Friday (14) to next Monday (17) for four days. The meeting took place as part of a fierce struggle between the US-China trade and the temporary lull.
According to Chinese economists who do not want to be there, the meeting will review the economic performance of the year, reduce import tariffs with the initial agreement reached with the United States earlier, and propose measures to stimulate economic development and expand opening. The meeting also reaffirmed the preservation of the economic policy set by the CCP's "politburo" meeting, "stabilizing employment, stabilizing the treasury, stabilizing foreign trade, stabilizing foreign investment, stabilizing investment, and stabilizing expectations."
Professor Hu Jingdao, an economist in Beijing, told Radio Free Asia: "This central economic work conference, I believe the basic tone will be a stable currency, loose credit Can be loose again, because in the past one or two decades, monetary policy is too loose, leading to a series of problems, the pressure of future inflation may be very large. "
Some of the media have been quoted by researchers to analyze that the Economic Labor Conference is expected to discuss tax cuts, increase government spending, stimulate the economy, and develop the market. "The mix of domestic macroeconomic policy next year is likely to be" stable currency, loose credit, and broad financing, "said Ang Johnson, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Hoxin Securities, in an interview with China Business News. The central bank will release cheaper funds for the medium and long term, increase the willingness of financial institutions to lend, release credit and transfer funds to the real economy. Fiscal policy will be more active, it is expected that the rate of budget deficit, the issuance of local government bonds and the volume of tax cuts and reductions will increase next year.
Currently, China and the United States are in a state of suspension on the friction trade. The American side will give China 90 days to consider and will end by the end of February next year. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in November, the CPI fell to 2.2%, the lowest since August. The consumer price index of industrial manufacturers rose by 2.7%, also the lowest in two years. For China's GDP growth this year, the outside world is expected to be 6.5% to 6.7% Goldman Sachs expects China's GDP to grow by 6.2% next year in mid-November. However, economists who do not want to be there should predict that if China, the US trade trade continues, growth of next year's GDP may reach 6% or even lower.
Overcapacity is another problem facing China. China Financial Information Network reported on Wednesday that as of December, the country's total refining capacity reached 840 million tons, and domestic refining capacity will increase by at least 214 million tons in the next three years. The overcapacity risk becomes more prominent.
Mr. Gao, an economist in Shanghai, told reporters: "Agility will have a very negative impact on the local economic situation, and there is also a problem of closing the plant, which will create various social contradictions. The current domestic economic situation is not optimistic.
Some researchers expect that China's budget deficit, the issuance of local government bonds and tax cuts will increase next year, and various "wide fiscal" measures will be actively implemented. But US-China relations will be an important factor.
(Transfer from: Asia Free Radio) #
Editor in charge: Lin Shiyuan