In recent days, the most in question about Apple News is not that the iPhone will be long in 2019, but the problem that Chinese users can still buy the iPhone in the future.
Let's examine the event. On the evening of December 10, Qualcomm announced that it had won a dispute with Apple, which ruled that the ban on the temporary sale of Qualcomm on the Apple iPhone was approved, while the prohibited products included iPhone 6s / 6s Plus and iPhone 7. 7 devices with 7 Plus, iPhone 8/8 Plus and iPhone X.
This means that in addition to iPhone XS / XS Max and XR series, the old models currently on sale on Apple's official website are all within the temporary ban.
This is also the latest change in the various legal disputes of Apple and Qualcomm of the past year.
Since then, Apple has responded to Qualcomm's order for the first time, saying that "an attempt to sell iPhone is another Qualcomm desperate move" and is also applying for reconsideration. In recent days, Apple's official site and Apple Store are still selling old iPhone models.
However, Qualcomm's approach is still difficult, according to the report of the first financial report, because all three Apple subsidiaries refused to sign the court decision, Qualcomm again filed a request to enforce the ban to the Chinese court, the Financial Times said Qualcomm Also hope to prohibit three new models, including iPhone XS / XS Max / XR.
The event again enters the heat, and it also attracted the attention of many consumers. What we care about is, what Apple patents violate? And what is the ban on Apple and Qualcomm mean?
Apple infringement patents may be related to multitasking cardos interactions
Currently, in the case of Apple's Qualcomm has a lot to be approved, one of which is the scope of the application. According to CNBC, Apple believes that this patent litigation applies only to the iOS 11 system, not the new iOS 12, so it does not affect the current iPhone sales.
But then Qualcomm said the ban was for a particular model of the iPhone, regardless of the version of the system being sent.
It is worth noting that the ruling recalled a patent "ZL201310491586.1." After the investigation of the Pener Islands, it was found that the State Intellectual Property Office heard publicly the patent case in May this year, including details. Displays information about this patent.
This model and interface are very familiar, do not you? It's easy to think of a Palm-style card interface in the webOS era. In fact, that was the case, the patent originally belonged to Hewlett-Packard, and in 2014 Qualcomm acquired a large number of patents from Hewlett-Packard, so that Cardcommask's Carditasking interaction is now owned by Qualcomm.
A year ago, Qualcomm's claims against Appel in the US District Court indicated that the iOS system is now violating the design of card-based interactions, including "using text instead of voice to answer incoming calls" and "tapping the touch screen" To achieve camera focus and other functions.
These unusual sound features have now become part of the case of Apple's Qualcomm patent.
But now, Apple said in the latest announcement that the patents involved in this Qualcomm lawsuit are not major mobile phone features use, Apple will release a software update for iPhone users in China next week to resolve any possible Apple compatibility. The problem, but also re-emphasized the provisions of the re-application.
In addition, as noted by the earlier Panner Islands, the ban on Qualcomm is only a temporary protection measure, the ban is for Apple, iPhone sold by the terminal dealer will not be affected the ban if Apple later reconsider the case, the ban is likely to be canceled as well.
However, China Securities quotes the relevant legal sources, that the ruling was part of the patent order, Apple can apply for reconsideration, but re-examination did not affect the enforcement of the ban, as on Apple's application of software update , The prohibition can not be disqualified. Further observation.
If the iPhone is really banned, what impact on Apple?
Retreat 10,000 steps, if Apple really lost, resolutely did not reconcile with Qualcomm, resulting in iPhone ban, what effect will it affect Apple?
A well-known Apple analyst, Neil Seibert, analyzed two cases for us:
1. Some iPhones are banned in the Chinese market
2. All iPhones are prohibited in the Chinese market
For the first case, this means that Apple can only sell XS XS / XS Max and XR on the official channel. All other old models are all banned from being promoted and sold, and they are taken off the shelf.
This will cause Apple to lose about 8-10 million iPhone sales per year.
The calculation is based on the rate of sales in China, which is larger than Apple's previous profits, starting from the 2017 situation. This ratio is stable at about 20 percent.
If we assume that the sale of the iPhone in Greater China accounts for 20% or even more of global sales, it means that China has taken 42 million sales of 210 million iPhones a year, essentially identical to IDC's IDC data. .
According to Bloomberg's report, Apple's documents submitted to the court indicate Apple's sales in the Chinese market in 2017, which is 50 million iPhones.
On this basis, according to the share of the old iPhone, which accounts for about 30% of iPhone sales per year, you can get around 10-15 million units.However, Neil Cybart also noted that the Chinese market, high-priced iPhones accounted for their share Of sales. It will be even higher, some of the older models can be only about 20%, and the number of old iPhones will end up around 8-10 million.
Of course, there is some uncertainty in this estimate, if the proportion of iPhones in Greater China sales is even higher, then sales volume will be higher than this result.
However, we do not rule out that after the iPhone is banned in China, it will lead to the growth of iPhone sales in other regions, and demand for the gray market includes a second-hand market will increase to compensate for the old iPhone demand in the Chinese market.
As for the second case, it is even more brutal, it is worth Apple's inability to sell any model of iPhone on the official channel.In principle, it gives the sales figures of 40-50 million dollars a year.
The decline in hardware sales will also have an impact on the revenues of Apple's services department and other accessories products, and when it comes true, it will eventually be reflected in Apple's profit report.
The ban on the iPhone is only rhetoric, and that is only the weight of Qualcomm seeking reconciliation.
Today, most public opinion is pessimistic about the ban on iPhone in the Chinese market. In addition to Chinese claims, Qualcomm filed a complaint in Germany and the United States.
But in general, the confrontation between Qualcomm and Apple is also a matter of "killing a thousand and losing eight hundred." In fact, most of the banning iPhone that has requested in the past year has not achieved the desired results. In the United States, Federal Trade Commission judges still said that Qualcomm's patent licensing and chip sales strategy had challenged reasonable market competition.
To this end, Qualcomm has chosen to reduce licensing fees at the time of licensing of the 5G patent technology, which is also seen as a desire to facilitate relations with Apple.
Whether the victory in China was influenced by events in other fields, is indeed not decisive.
In fact, for Apple, what it wants is still a reasonable patent license fee, not the pricing power that Qualcomm controls completely, for Qualcomm, while striving to its side, it also hopes to get it again. Opportunity to communicate with Apple.
After all, a month ago, Qualcomm was "willing to cooperate with Apple" to prove its intention to show good attitude, but at the time Apple hoped to rely on legal warfare to solve the problem.
But now, the balance has fallen temporarily to Qualcomm, and perhaps Apple will reconsider the negotiations with Qualcomm.
Map Source:Puls Biznesu