According to the National Supervisor of Tax Administration (call) The exchange rate continues to fall with Purchase in S / .3,926 and sale in S / .3,938. There are a number of reasons why the exchange rate has caused a marked drop, but the main one is due to the departure of former Prime Minister Guido Lido from the cabinet of ministers.
The second factor could be the rise in the price of copper. “The increase in the price of copper, which stands at $ 4.50 per kilo. We are exporters of copper. Whenever your price goes up more go in. Dollars Peru and push the exchange rate down “, Said Alberto Arispa, CEO of Kallpa SAB in the newspaper El Comercio.
Those affected by the dollar drop
The effect of prices will not be immediate, as this will require a Steadily low level At the price of the dollar. The main impact will be household appliances, televisions, furniture, personal care items, cleaning, perfume, medicines and vehicles.
On the other hand, rents and airline tickets will also be affected. “The direct components represent 14% of the base basket, which together have risen 3.4% in the last 12 months and explain 8% of inflation (5.2% as of September),” he said.
Accordingly, Hugo Fria, chief economist at BBVA Research, noted that a change in the exchange rate creates a temporary impact on various types of imported products such as clothing, household appliances, toiletries and beauty products, fuels and services such as rental. .
The indirect effects will be through products that have other products like inputs like soybeans, wheat, corn, for example in the case of chicken, sugar, bread, oils, eggs.
“Apart from the fact that their price varies due to external factors, they are also affected by the exchange rate. The commodity linked to these inputs represents 10% of the base basket and explains 35% of the current level of inflation,” Guerrero said.
A third component is water and electricity tariffs, which have the dollar as a matching input in their prices. These explain 10% of the inflation level as of September. In addition to products like oil and bread it will take longer.
“For example, if the exchange rate stabilizes, oil producers will change the price downwards as costs rise and if they expect a boost in sales. If that did not happen they would not lower them. Final prices do not rise or fall in parallel with exchange rates, it depends on price producers ) And the way in which their rehabilitation is conducted, “he said.
Representatives of BBVA Research and Scotiabank concluded that the political issue does affect inflation, but despite this, despite a more stable environment, prices They respond more to external factors such as the price of goods, fuels, the supply chain, among others.
“The effect of the exchange rate will not be direct on prices, as there are other factors that affect it. Its effect is marginal on inflation, but it will have an effect on expectations about it,” Guerrero said.
Priya said agricultural commodities have begun to decline, but it is still unclear how crops in the southern and northern hemisphere will develop the following year.