The model calculation was correct once before
In fact, there were not 100 new corona cases in Bavaria on Friday, but according to RKI 247. Calculating a hypothetical example is not a forecast, as actual development depends on a large number of factors, not just about R. The RKI stressed on Thursday that its last scenario for fall and winter Is not a Corona forecast, but is intended to show possible development. But sometimes the possibility becomes a reality: in the spring of 2020, the Society for Epidemiology showed in model calculations that the second wave threatened in the fall – as it actually happened.
But the number of cases is still low. Because of this, “local eruptions can cause the value of the reproduction number to be relatively strong,” said a spokesman for the Ministry of Health in Munich. “It is impossible to predict how events will develop and continue to be observed.”
The delta version, which is supposed to be more contagious than other versions, plays a key role in the spread of the virus. According to the July 14 RKI, the Delta’s share of all new infections in Germany was just under three-quarters. “Based on developments to date, it can be assumed that the delta version rate in the total number of infections will continue to increase,” says the Ministry of Health.
A vaccine gives hope
The great hope: thanks to vaccines and an increasing number of recoveries, the vaccine is advanced – so the state government assumes “average morbidity and mortality rate” than in 2020. Translated into everyday language: fewer patients and fewer deaths. But that’s not all clear. “If the number of infections increases sharply, however, the risk increases while there will be an increased number of serious illnesses and hospitalizations will increase again,” a ministry spokesman said. “This should be avoided.”