Brussels – responsibility. The forecasts of the Italian government are more optimistic than the economic reality, according to the Commission's autumn forecasts published yesterday, which show less than expected growth and even larger deficits.
In particular, economic growth for 2019 is expected to reach 1.2%, compared to the Italian government forecast of growth of 1.5%. But when there is a very large gap between the Italian government's forecasts and the commission's forecasts, it is the size of the deficit, which is also the thorn in their relations. The committee expects the deficit to reach 2.9% of GDP in 2019 and 3.1% of GDP in 2020, as it emphasizes that weak growth also has a deficit effect. The Italian government insists that the deficit for 2019 should not exceed 2.4%.
"Following the steady growth in 2017, it fell in the first half of 2018 as exports and industrial production has weakened," the report said.Currently, the rise in the government deficit, along with higher interest rates and the dangers lurking in the euro area, jeopardize the reduction of Italian debt. Due to fiscal depreciation and declining growth, Italy's high debt will already remain stable around 131% of GDP by 2020.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte stressed yesterday that the commission's projections do not assess the positive effects of the structural reforms promoted by Rome on the development of the country. "For this reason, we see that is certainly not likely any other scenario for Italy's budgets," he insisted that insisted that Rome will not send a budget with changes, although the Commission gave the Italian government a deadline of November 13 to present new data. If Italy does not change its position, the commission could launch an "excessive deficit procedure" that could even lead to fines, although they have never been imposed in any country in the euro zone. "The European Commission's projections for the Italian deficit are sharply opposed to those of the Italian government and come from an incomplete and incomplete analysis of the budget," said Economy Minister Zubani Treya. "We regret and join this technical error on the part of the Committee, which will not affect the continuation of the constructive dialogue."
"Combakaki" slow down in the euro area
Although the euro zone remains on track, the EU's fall forecasts published yesterday show that its economy is slowing down against the spring forecasts, as a range of external and internal risks may affect the performance of the euro zone. The conflict with Italy, the rise in oil prices, the consequences of Brexit and the increasingly difficult EU relations, are some of the reasons why the fall forecast growth in the euro zone will be about 2.0% 2019 and 1.9% by 2020.
"Uncertainty and risks, both internal and external, are rising and they have begun to affect the pace of economic activity," said Vice-President of the European Commission responsible for the euro, V. Dobrobowsky yesterday. The slowdown in growth follows 22 consecutive quarters of growth in the eurozone, and now all of its member countries, including Greece, have emerged from adjustment programs.
The committee warned that "there is great uncertainty" and stressed that there are many factors that constitute risks to the eurozone's interrelated economy, which can maximize the negative effects on the economy.
Where there is still an improvement in the labor market, which has continued since the first half of 2018. Unemployment is expected in the eurozone to fall to 8.4% this year and stay on the path until 2020, at 7, 5%.
The unemployment rate was at the lowest level since January 2000, when it began to measure. With regard to inflation, the Committee increased its forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 1.8%, while in 2020 it is expected to reach 1.6%. The reason lies in the rise in the price of oil.