The analytical department of Raiffeisenbank predicts that by the end of the year, the dollar may exceed the psychological mark of 70 rubles, according to RBC.
Bank experts emphasize that while maintaining the current value of oil barrel and the national currency rate, the balance of the current account in November-December should be about $ 12.5 billion and this amount will not be enough to pay Russia on external debt (the sum is 14.3 billion) .
"Given that large current account balance has not led to the strengthening of the ruble, it can be concluded that the capital outflow was not due to an increase in assets in foreign currency by banks, but by other factors," forecast says.
In early autumn, the central bank did not buy dollars in euros on the open market due to serious jumps in the exchange rate of the national currency, and buying dollars creates demand for them, which further weakens the ruble. Instead, the central bank provides the Ministry of Finance with the currency of its gold reserves.
In turn, the first deputy chairman of the Economic Policy Committee of the Federation Council Sergey Kalczakov In an interview with the reporter The Federal Press Agency He hastened to reassure the Russians and said that all predictions were "deliberately created to lower or increase the exchange rate."
"We have a speculative currency market, so any forecast working fall or appreciation.Raiffeisenbank is no exception in this case, he is a well-known player on currency exchange, so I would not listen to such predictions.
As for the real sign, then everything can be there, although the general trend indicates that there will be no changes in the next three months. In addition, it's in no way related to the price of oil, it's related to other factors that I do not want to talk about so as not to make forecasts myself, "the senator explained.
At the same time, a member of the Federation Council added that three months more or less stable will be after January, during which it is worthwhile to expect a decline in the value of foreign currency.
"I want to calm the citizens of Russia, January is always a month of the fall of the dollar.This is due to the fact that you have to pay taxes and companies to keep their money in foreign currency, forced to sell it to pay the bills.Therefore, January is always the month of the fall of the dollar. Which I can promise, "concluded Kalczakov.
Recall, the chief economist and deputy head VEB Andrei Klepach Previously reported that the ruble exchange rate in 2019 could greatly weaken under the influence of existing and expected sanctions against Russia.