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Semiconductors: Beware of Fadeaway – NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)


The Fadeaway move

"Fadeaway" is a well-known, though fairly difficult, move in the game of basketball.

A fadeaway or fall away basketball is a jump shot taken while jumping back, away from the basket. The goal is to create space between the shooter and the defender, making the shot much harder to block. The shooter must have very good precision and must use greater power in a relatively short time. – Wikipedia

Picture result for fadeaway basketball

Michael Warden was one of the most popular shooters of the fadeaway. Willet C. Barbell, Patrick Ewing, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Hakim Ulyanov, Dwyane Wade, Karl Malone and Larry Bird are some of the greatest of all time ("Goat"), also known for this move. It is no coincidence that those who brought the fadeaway move to perfection are also the ones that make the GOAT list.

Similarly, in recent years, semiconductors have brought their Fadawai move to perfection, creating more space (profit margins) between them (suppliers) and their "shields" (customers), making stock price shooting much harder to "block".

Here are some good semiconductors "played" over a period of 3 years, before the fourth quarter of 2018 (ie 9/30 / 2015-9 / 30/2018):

Total semiconductor stocks

Some quick observations:

1. Almost all of the leading names went up on the overall market (S & P 500). Total yields of Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), Micron Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: TXN), Broadcom Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGO), and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) were much better than the SPDR® S & P 500 ETF (SPY) .

Only Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) failed to perform the index. We focused on both companies (together with AVGO) in "the three Musketeers", Our last article.

2. With the exception of the INTC, all the names that came up in the SPY performance also exceeded the technological standard – Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

3. Four companies – NVDA, AMD, MU and TSM – were able to perform better than the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) test. However, only the first three succeeded in doing so decisively.

The three highest-performing seminars (during the 3-year period) – AMD, NVDA, and MU – have been featured in some of our articles over the last 15 months. Well,

In case you have not figured it out yet – we love semis. We think it's the past, the present and the future. It is difficult (and frankly not logical) to argue with growth and potential here.

We love all three names – AMD, NVDA and MU – and we combine all three.

After we said that, we love AMD better, mainly because we see it as a better choice from a risk / reward perspective, but also because we see greater potential for AMD to shine in the already glamorous realm. To put it differently, it will be easier for AMD to hit and perform than its major peers.

Source: Semis: It's not just who you want to play with, but how you want to play the game (Part I), March 14, 2018

In this article two parts focused on our favorite AMIS, MU and NVDA.

At this point you (hopefully) can understand why we hold this triad and why AMD is our sun.

Just like the three Tenors – the Spaniards Plácido Domingo and Jose Carreras, and the Italian Luciano Yano Pavarotti – created an amazing singing group during the early 1990s and early 2000s, we believe that the three semis are creating an incredible growth group for 2010 and into the 2020s.

No tears, no fears and one Sulla Mew: AMD.

Source: Semis: It's not just who you want to play with, but how you want to play the game (part), March 16, 2018

As you can see, we were spot on (already at the end of 2017, more details / proofs below) with the choice of AMD as our preferred end at the end of 2017 as well as with the NVDA projection.

The same goes for converting our long position in AMD to a short position, just before the fourth quarter of 2018. This short position closed During the fourth quarter of 2018, And since then we have had no position on AMD. (Until this week, more details below).

Fadeaway mode

However, we remind you that "the shooter must have very good accuracy and must use more power within a relatively short period of time."

Semis had accuracy and power, but now it seems like, for many of them, time and energy is running out.

Here's how exactly the same list of companies above have performed since Q4 / 2018 started up to now (closing prices of 3/12/2019):

Rapid observation: only four names have risen on the overall market (S & P 500), technology sector (QQQ, XLK, VGT, FDN, IYW) and / or semiconductor index.

The total return on ETFs of iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), SPDR® S & P 500 ETF (SPY) and Inveco QQQ Trust (QQQ) since 10/1/2018 are better than those of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Inc. Micron Technology Ltd., Qualcomm Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., and Nvidia Corp.

Only Intel, Broadcom, NXP Semiconductors NV, and Texas Instruments Inc. Performed better than standards.

"Fadeaway Mode" is even more amazing when we focus on the trio of NVDA, MU, and AMD.

Total yield – the last three years (up to and including 3/13/2019)

The last three years were nothing but a paradise for the trio, even if we include the last few months very rough.

AMD (+ + 241%) Leave dust for all other indices, whether they are diversified (SPY, QQQ) or targeted (SOXX, SMH):

  • iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) + 114%
  • VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (+ SMH) + 101%
  • SPDR® S & P 500 ETF (SPY) + 47%
  • Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) + 71%

Total yield – 2018

However, if we look at 2018 on an independent basis, including its fourth-most destructive, it's more of a mixed portfolio.

While AMD managed to finish the year as the S & P 500's best performance of the year, NVDA and MU Yizkor 2018 much less affectionately.

Source: FactSet

Having said that, you should not look at it as one piece. Since the last quarter was so different from the three preceding quarters, here is a split point of 2018, by the decisive date (October 1, 2018):

  • Total yield from 1/1/2018 to 10/1/2018

The "gold index" during which AMD (+ 206%), NVDA (+ 50%) and to a much lesser extent, MU (+ 10%) exceeded the leading index index of semiconductors (SOXX + 10%, SMH + 9%), Also the main indexes (QQQ + 20%, SPY + 11%) by kilometer.

  • Total yield from 10/1/2018 to 3/13/2019

Then came 10/1/2018 and from that date onwards, things were not the same for more semis. The NVDA (-42%), AMD (-26%) and MU (-14%) are behind the leading semiconductors in exchange traded funds (SOXs) Flat, SMH -1%), as well as the main indices (QQQ -5%, SPY -3%).

Obviously, we witnessed a real and meaningful fadeaway. The question now is what the future holds for these semis, and during the rest of this article, we will try to find out.

Previous profits and other financial aspects

First of all, it is important to note that NVDA alone has a market size that is almost 50% higher than the market value cap of MU and AMD combined.

However, it is evident that while the current trend is down for NVDA and MU, and for AMD. Putting it differently, the gap (in size) is shrinking, and we expect it to shrink further, going further.

The amazing run of the illustrations is fantastically illustrated by the chart below, showing the development of the trio's market caps over the last decade.

Ten years ago, all three companies were tiny actions that hardly anyone looked at. At the height of their valuation (each on an independent), the three companies were worth over $ 300B (!), With NVDA accounting for 2/3 of it.

With the current combined market cap above 40% (or 60% three months ago) below the combined peak levels, it may seem (to some of you) as if these companies have lost their "mojo". We, on the other hand, have not become generalized; At least, not yet …

Over the past two years, MU has been on its own league here, more than double its average quarterly income from 2016 to 2018. However, the time for the Golden MU is now over, and its flagship DRAM and NAND flash products are likely to experience a sustained decline in the foreseeable future.

This is precisely why analysts at Wells Fargo (WFC) just lowered their expectations from Micron, citing price concerns for DRAM. WFC analysts now expect revenue of only $ 22.58 billion ($ 29.9 billion, -25%) and $ 5.26 per share (down from $ 5.87 to 10%) in 1999.

The risks include highly volatile pricing for DRAM and NAND flash, the need for relatively high capital investments, and large fluctuations in Micron's past profitability which we believe will continue in the future.

However, WFC still ranks MU as "overperforming" with $ 50 per transatlantic, while analysts at the bank still believe that "positive long-term positive demand drivers remain intact."

The biggest shock here is Nvidia, a company that has seen massive growth over the last five years, up to the fourth quarter of 2018. On 1/28/2019, Novidia grabbed the market outside investors by significantly cutting its guidance for the fourth quarter of 2018 due to weak sales and central sales data.

It is possible to learn from Apple's experience (AAPL), Nvidia prepared the market for the worst, and then – when the actual numbers arrived (February 14) – both companies are satisfied with investors with more optimistic guidance for future years.

In the case of Nvidia, the company has guided flat income to little by 2020, still better than the market, more bearish, consensus (following 1/28/2019, earlier "preparation") expect 5% rejection.

The fourth quarter was an unusual, stormy, and disappointing quarter. Looking ahead, we are confident in our strategies and growth drivers. – Hansen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA

Earlier this week, the company announced the acquisition of $ 6.9B of Mellanox (MLNX). However, after completion of the transaction, NVIDIA expects the acquisition to be an immediate accretive to its gross non-GAAP margins, EPS, and FCF, we do not think that this acquisition is about to transfer the needle by too much.

Examining the latest FY data:

  • Revenue: NVDA: $ 11.72B, MLNX: $ 1.09B (ie a 9.3% increase, assuming zero cannibalization)
  • Net profit: NVDA: 4.14 billion, MLNX: $ 134.26M (ie an increase of 3.2%, assuming zero cannibalization)

Therefore, even if we assume "sum of all parts" (with zero cannibalization), based on last year's numbers (and we do not believe NVDA will be able to repeat these …), this transaction is not a game, replaces.

While Nvidia may be the better buyer of Mellanox – unlike other stakeholders like Microsoft (MSFT), Intel, Xilinx (Nasdaq: XLNX) or IBM (IBM), that does not mean that Mellanox is in a position to create miracles for Novidia. Nice, profitable addition? Sure. Game changer? of course not!

AMD also came with a downside guidance for Q1 / 2019. The company sees revenues of only $ 1.2 billion (compared to the market consensus at $ 1.47 billion), while citing soft graphics. (Large inventory mining and mining currency should be cleared out.)

All in all, everyone is talking / playing down the 2019 numbers compared to 2018.

Micron enjoyed phenomenal benefits (more on that later) that was translated into unbelievable EBITDA. To put it in the right context: MU's recent quarterly revenues were 3.6x and 5.6x larger than those of NVDA and AMD, respectively. However, MU's EBITDA is 12.4x and 68.5x higher than that of NVDA and AMD, respectively.

  • Operating profit (quarterly)

The same picture (like EBITDA) continues when it comes to operating income. MU is (that is, was) living on its own (profitable) planet.

Note that Novidia's sharp decline in operating revenues has brought it to levels seen only more than five years ago.

Looking back, in the previous charts, it is impossible to wonder why AMD, a company that has grown in its top line, is very beautiful and enjoys quite high margins (more so later) – unable to translate its growth into improved growth – profitability.

When it comes to the bottom line, AMD still has a long way to go.

  • Operating margin (quarterly)

We talked about Micron's unrealistic operating margins – and there you got it. While Nvidia was approaching, touching the 40% mark not long ago, MU has been making 40% + (and at some point, even 50%!) Over the past 18 months or so. It's no less crazy.

If you asked yourself why AMD is struggling to make growth (revenue) profitable – here's your answer. Too high costs / expenses are eating the most growth, leaving too little for shareholders to take home.

  • Profit margin (quarterly)

Even more than operating profits are margins. Micron is almost able to run it at a 1: 1 ratio. Every $ 1 of operating profit loses very little in its way to make almost $ 1 of net income.

If only MU can continue to run like this forever, I assure you that its stock will not be trading with multiples of 4-6x for so long …

  • PE ratio (after 12 months)

Speaking of this, Micron TTM P / E is probably the most attractive Wall Street ever seen from a company this size, over a long (relatively) long period. The problem of the company / stock is that everyone knows that this "gold rush" is going to come to an end, and in principle, the stock is reflected in this since the rush began.

AMD, on the other hand, trades at multiples that can not be justified from a purely financial point of view. Of course, this is a mirror image of MU, when investors expect the top AMD (and especially) bottom line to improve over time, thus taking the P / E down.

NVDA is (or should have been) the "adult room", delivering more reliable / consistent results. Reached the last quarter and re-traded the cards. We expect TTM P / E to pass the 30 mark soon, on the way to 40!

Future profits and other financial aspects

If you think to yourself, MU is a bargain, trading with P / E ahead of just 5.2x – think again. Recall that the TTM P / E is 3.2x, so we are talking about a 63% increase in multiples. This can be auch great for shareholders unless profitability will not drop as hard and quickly as some analysts expect.

Given NVDA's disappointing earnings, it's no wonder the front P / E almost meets AMD in the 1930s. This will not be the first, nor the last time this pair may meet on this chart (going forward). However, we believe that over time the red line (of AMD) will be lower than that of NVDA (blue line).

And who knows? In 2-3 years, we may have a meeting of all 3 companies, trading in (more or less) the same multi. It There will be something we have not seen for a long time.

* For the current fiscal year, next fiscal year, and 2 fiscal years ahead

Here are the current market estimates and revenues for the foreseeable future:

Now, let's introduce the above data a little differently:

Source: Author, based on Y-Charts data (as of 3/13/2019)

What can be learned from this table when it comes to future revenue growth?

  1. MU is out of game growth completely.
  2. Although NVDA and AMD are expected to grow in value, AMD's average growth is expected to be smoother, more stable and consistent, while NVDA is more likely to come in the wake of the recent bumps.
  3. Growth in the past is indeed not an indication of future growth. The latter is going to be much more slowly soft for these companies.

* For the current fiscal year, next fiscal year, and 2 fiscal years ahead

Here are the current EPS market estimates for the foreseeable future:

Now, let's introduce the above data a little differently:

Source: author, based on YCharts data (as of 3/13/2019)

What can be learned from this table when it comes to future revenue growth?

  1. AMD is in a league of its own. However, it is important to remember that AMD is dropping from a very low point, making it easier to perform better. Moreover, AMD's expectations finally begin to make serious money (bottom line) are time consuming. Will this time be different (and AMD finally get close to making $ 1 / year)? only time will tell.
  2. MU is also in its own league, but on 3 levels below that of AMD … The market is actually seeing MU of 2018 EPS getting in half ~ 3 years. If so (ie $ 5.75 EPS) and based on a stock price of ~ $ 40, the number would be approximately 7x, more than double the current P / E TTM!
  3. Currently, the market believes that Q4 / 2018 and 2019 will only be a soft dent in the short-term delay in the story of massive growth of long-term vapidia. Just like some other analysts, we strongly doubt that NVDA will be able to grow at a rate of 30% in such a short announcement. It seems unrealistic, because such growth rate was achieved only during the crypto boom, which even the company itself admitted gone.

How to play it

Let's start with Advanced Micro Devices:

With the chart above in mind, here's how we play AMD / edd, on the wheel of FORTUNE, over the past 16 months:

Note: After we sold the long position on 9/4/2008 (# 4), the call $ 20 we sold on 7/31/188 (# 3) went from "covered" to "Naked". This nude sale CALL was closed on 10/30/18 (No. 5B)

Here's what we wrote to our subscribers about the latest trade (# 6) made earlier this week:

This is a sale of nudity (ie without owning a stock) CALL option, so the risk is surely high!

As you already know, our conviction when it comes to semiconductors is quite weak. As a reminder:

  • Last week, we hosted "Our Choice" Micron designation.
  • Three weeks ago, we sold a covered call on Nvidia (trapping a value even shorting it)
  • On 09/04/2018, we not only sell out our Advanced Advanced Micro position, but also sold the short stock (ie cancel our position) at $ 27.28

To make a long story short, we do not expect this segment to come up with good news that will raise prices much higher here, even under the rosy scenario.

Moreover, if AMD was overvalued (in our opinion) at $ 27.28 more than six months ago, you can imagine that today, we are even less passionate about the same price share.

The option we sell will make us AMD short only if the stock move over $ 26 and get assigned to us. Even then, the net price (from which we will be short) is $ 27.05 = strike ($ 26) + premium ($ 1.05)

Currently, AMD is estimated to report earnings at 4/24/2019, two days before the expiration of the option. Of course, any delay in reporting (as of 26/2/2019) will make this option less risky than it currently is (assuming AMD reports earnings before the expiration date). The reason for this is simple: (extra) volatility.

Since a large part of the option is attributed to the current and expected volatility of the share, removing the threat that follows the profits will significantly reduce the value of the premium here.

Anyway, here are possible scenarios out of selling this nudity call option:

Keep in mind that selling a naked call means that the upside risk is (mathematical) unlimited, as the stock can rise to infinity (and beyond). Therefore, the margin requirement here is high, which is precisely why we prefer to play the trade with a relatively short expiration date (only 6.5 weeks); Otherwise, sell the AMD 07/19/2019 26.00 CALL for $ 2 (almost twice) will make a lot of sense, as 7/19/2019 is expected to fall before AMD earnings reports for Q2 / 2019. Putting it differently, in both cases we are likely to face Only one ER to expiration date. If you do not mind locking the amount of margin that this trade requires – you are welcome to make the expiration date July 19 instead of the April 26 expiration date.

With regard to Novidia:

In the chart above, here's how we play NVDA NV / on the FORTUNE wheel, over the last 17 months:

Note: The last trade at 2/20/19 (No. 4) was performed with a "double dose": i) covered sale (risk rating: 1, safe) versus our long (1/3 of full) position; ii) nudity sale (risk rating: 5, risk), ie risk is much greater.

Here's what we wrote to our subscribers about the last trade (# 4) made three weeks ago:

We held NVDA before launching the service, and sold it for $ 217. Then, when the stock retreated in November-December 2017, we opened a smaller (about 1/3 of what we sold) a position mounted with it all the way up to $ 300 (October 2 2018)

By the middle of 2018 we already felt that the stock was too expensive, so we sold a share of $ 280, but this option was never allocated, since the price fell like a rock and expiration time, the share price is already more than half!

So, we ended up with the premium we received, but also with stock …

Our revised target price for the stock is now $ 100-180; Yes, there is no typo. We will not be surprised with any move (short term) up or down. However, as you can clearly see, the downside ($ 60) is 3x upside potential ($ 20), so obvious, we lack an upward conviction, and we fear the downside more. Therefore, this trade is very easy for us, as it carries zero risk for us.

If we accept the option – we get a total (net price) of $ 186 (= strike of $ 160 + premium of $ 26), a bit higher that our PT and even higher than the price we paid ($ 184.50).

If an option is not allocated – we get almost half the risk of downside, upfront. It may be necessary to relieve the pain, if and when …

Since we do not see much chance for a share to trade significantly higher, we actually trade it in two ways / hats:

On the one hand, we sell covered calls that fully protect our long position. If the option is to be assigned, we will charge them against the selling price, as we normally do with assigned options (P & L goes in full to the underlying stock).

On the other hand, we do the same trade as naked sale (of course for a much smaller allocation), which is very risky, but we keep it small.

So, on a monthly report, you will see two transactions, one with a risk rating 1 and one with a risk rating of 5. Do not confuse this dual presentation.

The following are possible scenarios for this trade:

Last but not least – Micron

The truth is that we put MU into one of our "2019 debut" between the IT sector, when the share traded at very distressed levels (along with the entire market) at the end of December 2018.

We also sold MU 03/15/2019 31.00 PUT option on 01/03/2019 premium of $ 2.75. This option will expire today (15 March 2018) worthless. You can see the annual return on this trade, as per the picture below (indicating the possible scenarios at the time of sale).

עם זאת, בסוף פברואר, אנחנו למעשה "dethroned" MU מ "שלה לבחור" ייעוד לאחר ריצה מהירה של 50% מערוץ שוקת לשיא רק עניין של חודשיים!

תרשיםנתונים על ידי YCharts

עם פקיעת היום של האופציה שמכרנו, אין לנו כעת שום עמדה ישירה ו / או עקיפה הקשורה ל- MU.

Outlook ו מחיר היעד

כבר נגענו בהנחיות של כל חברה לרבעון / שנה, ולכן אין טעם לחזור על עצמנו. וול סטריט, בכל אופן, לוקח את השקפות אלה בחשבון בעת ​​הערכת והערכת הרווחים בעתיד.

בהמשך, תוכל לראות את הערכות EPS הנוכחיות לשנתיים הבאות. שים לב קרוב לתיקונים החדים שנרשמו על ידי EPS, הן עבור NVDA והן עבור MU, במהלך שלושת החודשים האחרונים.

וול סטריט צמצמה את הציפיות שלה ב -20% -30% על פני הלוח, וזה יכול להיות רק ההתחלה, לא בהכרח הסוף.

מקור: מחבר, מבוסס על וול סטריט ג'ורנל נתונים (נכון ל 3/13/2019)

במקביל, הערכות EPS עבור AMD להישאר יציב מאוד לא השתנו קצת. זה אומר אחד משני דברים: או AMD היא חברה צפויה מאוד (אשר היא לא …), או פעולה הרבה יותר מבטיח (הוא!) לעומת שני semis אחרים.

על מה וול סטריט רואה את שלוש החברות כשמדובר PTs, זה בכל מקום, החל אופוריה לדיכאון.

כמו תמיד, אנו מתעלמים מהתחזיות הקיצוניות (כלומר, "הגבוהות ביותר" ו"הנמוכות ביותר ") ומדבקות לרחוב הראשי, כלומר, הממוצע והאומדנים החציוניים, שכן אלה נוטים להיות אמינים יותר ולשקף טוב יותר את הרגש הכללי. אחרי שאמרנו את זה, כשמדובר בציפיות האנליסטים, המוטו העיקרי שלנו הוא: כבוד וחשד; יותר של האחרון מאשר לשעבר …

מקור: מחבר, מבוסס על וול סטריט ג'ורנל נתונים (נכון ל 3/13/2019)

כאשר מסתכלים על הטבלה לעיל, הנה כמה תצפיות מיידיות מיידיות:

1. MU יש את הפוטנציאל הגבוה ביותר כלפי מעלה (על בסיס ממוצע, חציון, ו PTs הגבוהה ביותר) כמו גם את הפוטנציאל downside הנמוך ביותר (מבוסס על PTs הנמוך ביותר).

2. למרות וול סטריט לספור על AMD לבצע מוצק יותר מאשר עמיתים שלה, אין הרבה בשר נשאר על עצם זו, לכל הממוצע וחציוני PTs. לשים את זה אחרת, AMD הוא מוערך למדי כמו כן (הצדקה נוספת המכירה האחרונה שלנו של שיחה עירום כאן).

3. למרות NVDA נראה היתרונות של פוטנציאל גדול יותר כלפי מעלה, לעומת AMD, אתה יכול לראות כי אפילו PT הגבוה ביותר הוא לא אופטימי. אף אחד לא חושב כי המניה עומדת לענות על השיאים 2018 שלה בקרוב.

שורה תחתונה

ב מינימום, 2019 תהיה שנה קשה עבור NVDA ו MU, לעומת 2018. בעוד MU זה הולך להיות קשה יותר מזה, עם הרבה מזל, NVDA עשוי לעלות חזק שוב בשנת 2020. לאחר אמר כי, הירידה הצפויה (ברווחי החברה) בשנת 2019 הוא כל כך עמוק, כי לא היינו קונים את הטבילה כי בתחילת השנה. אנו מצפים יותר כאב לפני רווח משמעותי.

שים לב כי ידידנו ושותףנו, Trapping Value ("TV"), מעריכים כי "NVDA יפגע (רק בשביל זה) רק 2.28 דולר ברווח למניה", בהתבסס על חישוב זה:

source: Nvidia: מעל המשחק /

אמנם אנחנו לא דובי כמו טלוויזיה, אנחנו בהחלט לראות את המניה המסחר קרוב ל 100 $ מאשר ל 200 $ בתוך 2019, בדיוק כפי שעשתה בשנה שעברה.

האסטרטגיה שלנו כאן, כפי שתואר לעיל, פירושה שאם NVDA נסחרת מעל $ 160 לקראת תאריך התפוגה – נמכור את הפוזיציה הארוכה שלנו ונפתח פוזיציה קצרה במחיר נטו של 186 דולר. אנחנו בהחלט לא מאמינים שהמלאי שווה יותר מזה, בלשון המעטה.

בסך הכל, השקפתנו עבור NVDA היא דובי, וככזה, הדירוג הנוכחי שלנו עבור המניות הוא "מותנה למכור" = להחזיק עכשיו, אבל למכור ~ 180-185 $.

MU הוא אחד שאנחנו מוצאים את זה קשה ביותר לבצע שיחה, כפי שאנחנו לא יהיה מופתע לראות את זה מעל 50 $ / לשתף, או מתחת $ 30. שני המקרים יש טיעונים טובים, וזה הכל על כמה חמור "פציעות" יהיה, עכשיו הפעילות העיקרית שלה הם מעל השיא. שאלת המפתח היא: האם זה יהיה שקופית הדרגתית לאורך ההר, או יותר כמו לקפוץ מצוק?

האסטרטגיה שלנו כשמדובר MU היא לחכות. אנו חוששים שההיפוך כאן מוגבל מאוד, לנוכח הציפיות בשוק כי הוא ייראה יותר כמו נפילה מצוק, אלא הסתגלות הדרגתית לצמצום הביקוש למוצרי החברה. לכן, בשלב הנוכחי, אנחנו מעדיפים לצעוד לצדדים ולצפות. אם המניה חוזרת חזרה ל -20 $, אנו עשויים לקחת שוב אחריות.

בסך הכל, לדעתנו, עבור MU הוא דובי מדי, אבל אנחנו לא רואים את המניה כפי להיות פגיע כמו NVDA. ככזה, הדירוג הנוכחי שלנו למלאי הוא "נייטרלי", אבל אנחנו נהיה קונים ברמות נמוכות הרבה יותר, בגלל הסיכון המוגזם (וגם מוגבל) שאנו מזהים כאן.

השם המעניין והמבטיח ביותר בין השלישייה הוא AMD, אבל גם כאן, רוב פוטנציאל הצמיחה צפוי לתקופות מעבר ל -2019. מבחינתנו, כפי שתוכלי לראות בהמשך, AMD תמיד היה סיפור הערכה. כל עוד החברה עושה בוטנים על השורה התחתונה, אנו רואים את המניה אטרקטיבי מתחת $ 16, overvalued מעל 25 $.

רק פעם אחת אנחנו רואים AMD עושה $ 1 / year ב EPS, היינו מתחילים לחשוב על המניה כמו אולי שווה לנוע לתוך $ 30s להישאר שם.

בסך הכל התצוגה שלנו עבור AMD הוא די שורי לטווח הארוך, בדיוק כפי שהיה במהלך 16 החודשים האחרונים. הבעיה העיקרית שאנו רואים עבור AMD היא חוסר היכולת שלה (עד כה) לתרגם את צמיחת ההכנסות ושוליים טובים יותר לרווח הנקי. AMD היא לא סטארט-אפ יותר וכשחברה בוגרת שכזו מרוויחה רק 0.32 דולר לשנה, אין שום דרך להצדיק הערכות שמייצגות מכפילים של 81-107x, כאשר המניה נסחרת במחירים של $ 26- $ 34.

ככזה, הדירוג הנוכחי שלנו עבור המניה הוא "ניטרלי", כפי שאנו מחכים AMD כדי "להראות לנו את הכסף". יש גם את הסיכון כי קבוצת עמיתים שלה (NVDA, MU ואולי אפילו 3 musketeers: AVGO, QCOM, NXPI) עלול לגרור את מחיר המניה של AMD למטה איתם.

אל תשכח מה שאנחנו תמיד אומרים ומאמינים מאוד: מיקרו טראמפ מיקרו. אפילו המניות הטובות ביותר, הגמישות ביותר, יתקשו, אם לא בלתי אפשריות, לעמוד בשוק סוער, אומלל.

בטווח הארוך, זה מאקרו – גלובלי, כללי, מגמות השוק – כי כללים (ומוביל) את העולם, הרבה יותר מאשר התכונות הספציפיות של החברה / חדשות.

אתה מאיר את השמים, מעלי כוכב, כה בהיר, אתה מסנוור אותי, כן אל תעצום את העיניים לא להתפוגג, לא להתפוגג, אה

source: "שלטון העולם" – קח את זה

בסך הכל, זה בטוח לומר כי מוליכים למחצה שלטו בעולם בשנים האחרונות, עד סוף הרבעון השלישי של 2018.

אל תבינו אותי לא נכון: סמיס לא הולכים לשום מקום, וזה לא שאנחנו מצפים שהקטע הרותח הזה יתפוגג לגמרי. זה נכון עבור השלישייה במאמר זה, כמו שזה נכון עבור השלישיה במאמר הקודם שלי.

עם זאת, בדיוק כמו הביצועים המלכותיים של "קח את זה", מתוך לונדון 2012 המשחקים האולימפיים, טקס סגירה מרמז: , הדלקת את השמים, מעלי, כוכבים רבים, כה בהירים, סומאת אותי, כן, אל תסגור את קווי הייצור שלך, לא להתפוגג, לא להתפוגג, אה

במוקדם או במאוחר, אתה יכול לשלוט בעולם (שוב)!

הגלגל של פורצ 'ן הוא שירות מקיף ביותר, המכסה את כל סוגי הנכסים: מניות רגילות, מניות מועדפות, אג"ח, אופציות, מטבעות, סחורות, תעודות סל ו- CEF.

נצל את היתרון של שבועיים ללא תשלום ניסיון, וכן לקבל גישה שלנו:

  • סקירה חודשית, שבו כל המקצועות מנוטרים.
  • התראות מסחר. אנחנו לא נסחרים מדי יום, אבל אנחנו מפרסמים מסחר אחד לכל יום מסחר בממוצע.
  • תיק מודל, במטרה להכות את הביצועים S & P500.
  • "מתכונן לשנת 2019", סדרה 19 חלקים, שמציעות מבחר העליון שלנו על פני 11 מגזרים ועוד שמונה קטעים.

Discovery: אני / אנחנו NVDA ארוך. כתבתי את המאמר בעצמי, והוא מבטא את דעותי. אני לא מקבל פיצוי על זה (חוץ מאשר מחפשים אלפא). אין לי שום קשר עסקי עם כל חברה אשר המניה שלה מוזכר במאמר זה.

גילוי נוסף: קצר NVDA 01/17/2020 160.00 CALL
קצר AMD 04/26/2019 26.00 CALL

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